Sunday 27 April 2014

What Is Still To Play For In The Premier League

The Title

It's probably going to the final day for City and Liverpool

Chelsea's amazing win at Anfield on Sunday ensured Liverpool will not have it all their own way for the rest of the season. A Liverpool win, even a draw, would have been a massive step towards ending the 24 year drought. Now, they will be made to sweat as the fate of the title is now in Manchester City's hands. In all seriousness, Liverpool are probably still favourites, but only just.

City are three points behind Liverpool with one game more to play. If both teams win all their remaining fixtures, Man City will win the title on goal difference (assuming Liverpool can't outscore them by eight goals in two games). Liverpool have just two games left to play. Away to Crystal Palace who have nothing left to play for and at home to Newcastle, who have a terrible record at Anfield and who also have absolutely zilch to play for. All Brendan Rodgers's side can do is secure maximum points and ensure that if they are going to be beaten to the title, it will be by the narrowest of margins.

Manchester City, who won at Palace on Sunday, travel to Goodison Park next week to face 5th place Everton. A few weeks ago this would have seemed a much more daunting task than it does today. While it will be by no means an easy ride, Everton's form has dropped off badly and their big push for the top four has faded badly. Still they've beaten Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United at Goodison this season as well as drawing 3-3 with Liverpool. This game for City brings back memories of their trip to Newcastle two years ago on the penultimate day. A win moved them to within touching distance of the trophy. Anything else handed the initiative back to United. They won that and went on to win the title. If they win at Goodison I think they'll win the league.

Following on from that they have home games with Aston Villa and West Ham in the final week of the season. Anything other than six points would mean 2nd place at best for Pellegrini in his first Premier League season.

Chelsea are major outsiders having lost 3 out of 6 league games before they won at Anfield. Defeat at home to Sunderland last week was a fatal wound to their title challenge. Had they won that game, they'd be top by now. A 4-0 record against the other two contenders shows how much they love the big games, but their record away to the lower sides in the division is what has cost them. Still though, all it takes is Liverpool and City to both lose next week and Chelsea will surge back into the driving seat. They've got Norwich away and Cardiff at home to come. Arguably the division's worst two teams. Expect two wins.




Relegation

Survival is now near impossible for Cardiff City

Nothing is set it stone yet. Any 3 from 8 teams could go down. Bottom of the pile are Cardiff on 30 points. With a trip to Newcastle and a home tie with Chelsea left, I wouldn't fancy them to get the 6 points they realistically need to stay up. Fulham are next on 31 points but have much more favourable fixtures remaining. They are away to Stoke next week and at home to London rivals Crystal Palace on the final day where the atmosphere at Craven Cottage will no doubt play a part in helping the team. Crucially, neither of Fulham's two remaining opponents will  have anything other than pride to play for when they face them.

Norwich slipped into the relegation zone this weekend and now stand very little chance of survival. Having sacked Chris Hughton with five games remaining, Neil Adams has managed to lose every one of his three games in charge. They face a trip to Chelsea and a home tie with Arsenal, both of which will be difficult for them to get anything from, particularly the way they are playing.

Sunderland, having looked doomed just a few weeks ago, have put together a fine run of form and moved out of the relegation zone with a win over Cardiff on Sunday. The manner of this 4-0 victory will have done wonders for Gus Poyet and the club. They've a couple of winnable games coming up too so it looks likely that Sunderland will be around next year. Aston Villa's form has taken a serious drop in recent weeks and has seen them slide down the table to the outskirts of the relegation battle. A couple of wins for Sunderland and Fulham over the next few weeks will pile the pressure on Villa to get results. Their final home game next week is against Hull who'll have one eye on the FA Cup final no doubt, and they've trips to City and Spurs to follow. Just 3 points above 18th spot, Villa are definitely not safe yet.

West Brom scored a big victory over West Ham on Saturday. Just three points can make a huge difference in a team's outlook, a defeat would have seen the Hammers mathematically safe at West Brom stuck on 33 points, just above the drop-zone. West Brom still have to play Sunderland in a game where a draw might suit both teams with regards to securing survival. Other than that, their home game with Stoke on the final day will be looked at as a chance to secure their top-flight status although it should be a certainty by then.

West Ham and Hull are not mathematically safe yet. 5 points above the drop with a maximum 6 left to play for, they won't have any troubles.




Top Four

Ramsey's return should help Arsenal over the line


Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City are all guaranteed to be playing Champions League football next season. Everton still have a chance to join them but Arsenal are firmly in command of their own destiny when it comes to the final spot. The Gunners are a point ahead with a game in hand and face two home games against Newcastle and West Brom before a trip to Norwich as they attempt to secure a record-equalling 17th consecutive Champions League appearance.

Everton have to play Manchester City so the chances of them picking up the maximum points they will probably need just to stand a chance are already at a disadvantage. City will be hungry and have the title in their sights so I don't like Everton's chances of winning the game, though they could very well secure a draw. In the long-run they will be hoping Arsenal have one eye on the FA Cup final over the coming weeks and that sees them slip-up, allowing Everton to secure a huge bonus for the club.

Strictly speaking, Spurs are also still mathematically in the hunt. A win for Arsenal on Monday against Newcastle ends that dream.




Europe

'Finished ahead of United in the Premier League' would go straight on Tim's CV

The loser of the Everton/Arsenal race for 4th will have the consolation prize, if you can call it a prize, of playing Europa League football next season. Hull are also guaranteed a spot as either FA Cup winners or runners-up as their opponents will qualify for Europe through the league.

As Manchester City won the other domestic trophy, the League Cup, England's final Europa League spot will go to the team that finishes in 6th place which will be either Spurs or Manchester United. I don't think either side particularly wants the extra burden of playing in the Europa League next season but one of them will get it. As it stands, Spurs are 6 points ahead with a game more played.

Neither sides have any games against the top four left. Spurs go to fierce rivals West Ham next week before hosting Aston Villa on the final day. They're playing well at the moment so I'd expect them to pick up the four points they need to 'secure' the Europa League spot. United have two home games against Sunderland and Hull before finishing up at Southampton on the last day. Two winnable games and a tricky one at St.Mary's for Ryan Giggs's side, they could take maximum points but it probably won't be enough. I'm sure they'll be gutted.




And Everyone Else...

Southampton, Newcastle, Stoke and Crystal Palace fans, your teams have absolutely nothing left to play for. Congratulations/Commiserations based on your respective early-season expectations.


Wednesday 23 April 2014

The Poorly Chosen One: The Disaster That Was The David Moyes Era


The Poorly Chosen One, Moyes has lasted less than one season

It's over. 295 days that are captured perfectly by this incredibly useful three second video clip.

The ill-fated reign of David Moyes as Manchester United manager early in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Despite calls for his head from as early as October time, I think the general consensus was that he would be given till at least the end of this season and perhaps the start of next before his future came under threat. Ed Woodward and The Glazers however have decided with just four league games remaining and United doomed to their worst ever Premier League season, the axe could not wait any longer, it had to fall and it did.

Whatever about the way the sacking was handled by the club (poorly and without much class), there can be no denying that this was 100% justified. If anything, it says a lot about the attitude of the club towards managers that they gave him virtually a whole year to turn things around. Hodgson at Liverpool went in January of his first year. Scolari and Villas-Boas both only lasted till February at Stamford Bridge. However when a manager takes over a team that won the title by 12 point last season and within one year has them 23 points off the pace, it's quite obvious that there is something fundamentally wrong with how he is doing his job. Yes the players didn't perform but the manager always must take the fall for this. There's no way the notoriously 'ageing' squad Ferguson had left Moyes with could have naturally deteriorated this much. A manager's job is to get the best out of his players, it seems Moyes got just about the worst.

David Moyes recalls the day in May 2013 when he was told he would be the next Manchester United manager saying "The blood drained from my face" as he realised the enormity of the role he was suddenly being thrust into. With the fear he showed then, it should have been clear that the job was too big for him, as the last ten months have proved. He would have been mad to refuse of course but it never have been offered to him in the first place. The idea of simply telling someone they are getting a job they haven't applied for seems strange to me. I agree that Ferguson deserved some input into choosing his successor but the hiring process seemed a bit bizarre.

The alarm bells began ringing in the summer when it became evident the transition into the post-Ferguson era at the club was not going to be a smooth one. The club made a mess of several transfer dealings in the summer and ended up with panic-buy Marouane Fellaini from Moyes's former club as the sole new face at the club. Fellaini's failure as a Manchester United player really nullifies the argument that Moyes needed time to bring in his own players and build his own team. He was appointed on May 9th and began work July 1st. He had two months to try and bring in the players he wanted and all he managed was Fellaini who signed at 11:40pm on September 1st.

The Old Trafford faithful are a loyal bunch and they were willing to give the manager time during a difficult bedding-in period in the hope that things would improve. The 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in September proved to be the first of many humiliating defeats they would have to endure throughout season. West Brom became the first of many sides to end a winless streak against United when they triumphed at Old Trafford the following week but following this set-back things did actually seem to improve and United went on a decent unbeaten run that included an impressive 5-0 win in Leverkusen and a 'plucky' victory at home to league leaders Arsenal, Moyes's only victory over a top 8 side as United boss.

It was over the winter that things began to take a downward spiral from which they would never recover. December opened with back to back home defeats to Everton and Newcastle. The Newcastle game being the one in which Moyes declared in his program notes that United would "make life difficult for Newcastle today". Making life difficult for clubs was what his Everton side did when they were scrapping around the lower echelons of the top half, what his Preston side did as they punched well above their weight in the Football League. It's what Stoke have done for years, what Crystal Palace do so well now. It's not what Manchester United do. Not ever. Imagine a Real Madrid or Barcelona manager saying before kick-off that they were going to 'make life difficult' for Real Sociedad when they come to the Bernabeau or the Camp Nou. I don't think he'd still be in charge by kick-off.

Having proved incapable of making his mark in the transfer market and completely out of his depth mentally, Tottenham's trip to Old Trafford on New Years Day exposed Moyes as a complete tactical dunce. His gameplan was simple and comically uneffective. Get the ball wide, cross the ball at no-one in particular, see ball cleared by centre halves, try again, lose the game. Painful to watch. The pattern was repeated against Stoke whose centre-halves have an average height of about 8 foot with similarly poor results. A week later at home to Fulham, United managed to set a record for most attempted crosses as they struggled to draw 2-2 with the league's whipping boys. It seemed that getting the ball wide and crossing, even in the absence of a target-man, was the only way he knew how to play. Flair players like Mata and Kagawa would never flourish under Moyes.

"We have to make sure we win 1-0" was Moyes's pre-match soundbite before United headed into a League Cup semi-final second leg against Sunderland in January, trailing 2-1 following a dismal first leg performance. United took the 1-0 and sat back, apparently content to soak up pressure at Old Trafford against a side in the Premier League relegation zone. Under Ferguson, I'm sure United would have gone out and won 4-0. Moyes had been Everton manager for eleven years. 1-0 and 2-1 are the only way he really knows how to win. Scraping it. These players were used to being sent out to dominate games. Needless to say, Sunderland ended up progressing  to the final, via the worst penalty shoot-out in history.

January also saw Swansea enjoy what used to be a once-in-a-lifetime moment for players, a win at Old Trafford, as they dumped United out of the FA Cup at the first hurdle. The arrival of Juan Mata for a club record £37m created a brief feeling of optimism among fans. Hope evaporated within weeks however. Mata, a fantastic player, was not the kind of midfielder United were lacking. They needed an enforcer but got anything but. He was shoehorned in as a right winger. Moyes being given Mata was likened to a grandmother being given an iPhone. He didn't know how to use him and this state of the art piece of kit was being put to waste.

An embarrassing 0-2 defeat to Champions League minnows Olympiakos and further Old Trafford humblings by Liverpool and Manchester City, sealing league doubles for both of them, brought Moyes past the point of no return in the eyes of many fans and, apparently, the directors at the club too. It wasn't just the performances on the field, it was the manager's approach and attitude off it. The manager at any club is their main media outlet, it's face if you will. Moyes was proving to be a poor ambassador for Man United. Describing Liverpool as favourites before they came to Old Trafford portrays the club as weak. Saying that they should aspire to be like City did exactly the same thing. This was gross naivety on the part of Moyes. His job may have changed but he had kept his old Everton mentality. He saw United as plucky underdogs rather than the colossal superpower he had been assigned to lead. Being a good mayor of a small town does not mean you're fit to be the President of America.

A 'brave' defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League was not good enough. If anything, the story of this tie highlighted just how far United had fallen under the new regime. Twelve months ago the same group of players had Mourinho's Real Madrid on the ropes before a controversial red card changed the game. This year, when Bayern came to Old Trafford, it was obvious the only way they would get anything other than a hammering would be to sit back and park the bus. That they did. A 1-1 draw at home was looked upon like a massive victory. Moyes's grin after the game could be seen from space. The second leg was much the same but Bayern's class eventually told and they progressed, winning 3-1 in Munich.

Ironically, Moyes's United reign ended at the home of his former club Everton where he suffered yet another chastening dose of reality. At no stage on Sunday did it look like United were going to beat Everton or even score against them. In the past, a Ferguson team would have gone to David Moyes's Everton expecting to win, anything else was simply unthinkable. David Moyes's Man United went there as hopeless outsiders who never seemed to believe they had a chance. Everton were the better side and deserved to win. It was truly amazing how the two clubs had virtually swapped mentalities in the space of a year. The result mathematically consigned United to the unfamiliar position of having no Champions League football to look forward to next season, surely the bare minimum expected of Moyes in his first season, and he lost his job within two days.

He had to go. There's no doubt about it. If there had been at least some signs that things would improve then I would say give him time but things were only getting worse and worse. Given the rebuilding job that needs to be done over the summer and the investment required, it didn't make sense to have him there. A manager who can turn a team from runaway champions to a mid-table side is clearly doing something wrong. Yes the players let him down but the buck stops with the manager. It always has and always will.

The perilous task of walking in Fergie's footsteps is over and done with now and to just about no-one's surprise, 'The Chosen One' has failed. The next manager will not have such an enormous shadow hanging over him as he succeeds David Moyes, it would take someone very incompetent to do a worse job than this.

Ancelotti, van Gaal, Blanc.. or Ryan Giggs leading a Class of 92 coaching team? Whoever gets the job faces an easier task than Moyes but a monster one nonetheless.

Friday 11 April 2014

Time For A Change At Arsenal?


I wrote here back in August that a lack of willingness to evolve was killing Arsenal. One week later they seemingly proved me wrong, paying £42m for Mesut Ozil and surging to the top of the Premier League table by mid-September. Now, almost the whole season later I find myself singing a familiar tune. Arsenal's failure to evolve and make themselves better has seen them blow their lead at the top and become engulfed in a familiar battle for 4th spot.

It seems unthinkable that a club would sack the most successful manager in their history and out of respect for what he's done for the club, I don't expect Arsenal to merely dispense with Wenger's services in such a cold manner. However I do believe it is the right time to change and it would serve the club better going forward.

It's a situation similar to Brian Clough at Nottingham Forest in the 1980s and early 1990s. Clough took Forest to their first ever title in 1978 and followed it up with European Cup wins the following two seasons. Thirteen years elapsed between their triumph in Madrid in 1980 and Clough's departure from the club in 1993. During that time they achieved only two 3rd place finishes and two League Cups. Clough's immortal status at the club made him pretty much immune  to firing. It took relegation in the inaugural Premier League season in 1993 for them to part ways. Clough never managed again, his style had long-since passed it's sell-by-date.

The changes that have occurred at Arsenal in the intervening two decades since Wenger's arrival are a testament to the fantastic work he's done at the club. He arrived at the club as a relatively unknown manager having previously won Ligue Un with Monaco. His tenure at the club has changed the culture entirely. There's no bigger tribute to his impact on the club than the majestic Emirates Stadium where Arsenal have played since 2006. It might as well be a monument to the work done by Wenger in his first decade.

A giant monument to Arsene Wenger, Arsenal's Emirates Stadium


His first full season ended in the Premier League title and FA Cup double. He phased out an Arsenal legend in Ian Wright and decided to build the attacking outlet around Denis Bergkamp. His new signings Patrick Vieira, Emmanuel Petit and Marc Overmars in particular where vital in Arsenal's success that year as they put together an amazing run towards the end of the season to clinch the title with games to spare.

A lull followed for the following seasons as Wenger struggled with an ageing defence that needed replacing and the challenge of perhaps the greatest Man United side of all time who won the next three titles. With Sol Campbell acquired controversially from neighbours Spurs, Arsenal stormed to another double in 2001/02.

Wenger had, by this stage put together one of the most complete Premier League sides of all time. The defence had been replenished with the arrivals of Campbell, Kolo Toure and Lauren as well as the emergence of Ashley Cole. Vieira was still running the midfield alongside World-Cup winner Gilberto Silva. Robert Pires and Freddy Ljungberg, two of Wenger's best ever signings played on the wings with Denis Bergkamp up front, playing off arguably Arsenal's greatest ever player, the best in the world at the time and talisman of the team, Thierry Henry.

This side famously went the entire 2003/04 Premier League season unbeaten. The run continued into 2004/05 but was stopped at 49. A defeat that in many ways marked the turning point for Wenger. Arsenal relinquished the title to Chelsea that season, never to regain it. The Invincibles broke up over the next two years. Vieira was sold to Juventus, Henry to Barcelona, Cole to Chelsea. Bergkamp retired. Pires and Ljungberg faded away and then left.

The Invincibles were Wenger's second and last great side


Wenger's great rival Sir Alex Ferguson built several teams at Old Trafford, always ensuring the trophies continued to flow in. After Wenger added a bit of attacking flair the to solid defensive unit that was the mid-90s Arsenal side to make them champions, he built the Invincibles. They disbanded within two seasons. Gunners fans are still patiently waiting on his third team.

Arsenal didn't finish outside the top two of the Premier League in any of of Wenger's first eight full seasons at the club. Since they slumped to 4th place in 2005/06, they haven't managed to get back in. Wenger brought us the Invincibles, the team who went an entire Premier League season unbeaten, but since that era ended in around 2005, he's failed to build on the success from his first

The early part of this decade has seen Arsenal become the subject of many jokes regarding them being a selling club. In the space of a few years they sold a considerable amount of players to teams they were supposedly trying to beat. Clichy, Toure, Adebayor and Nasri went to Manchester City. Fabregas, Hleb and Alex Song went to Barcelona. Perhaps the most unforgivable from the fans point of view was the sale of the reigning PFA Player of the Year, Robin van Persie, to old rivals Manchester United in 2012. All these players have gone on to win trophies at their new clubs. Arsenal haven't won a thing without them.

Truth is, they were a selling club long before then. They sold Overmars and Petit to Barcelona in 2000. Henry followed in 2007. Patrick Vieira went to Juventus in 2005. All of these players still had something to offer to Arsenal.

The sad truth for Arsenal fans is that they've failed to win the Premier League since 2004 and failed to win a single trophy since a fortunate FA Cup Final triumph over Man United in 2005. These days, instead of being the team to beat in the Premier League as they were in the early 2000s, Arsenal's main aim every year is simply to remain in the top four and continue to play in the Champions League. The club has fallen a long way in terms of ambition.

Arsenal players celebrate 'finishing 4th' last season


The reasons for Arsenal's decline? Chelsea and Man City are two big ones yes but even if they weren't a factor, Arsenal haven't finished above Manchester United in the league since 2005 which suggests they wouldn't have won a title even without the billions of petro-dollars they have flowed into the Premier League in the past decade.

Paying the £600m required to build the Emirates Stadium is another factor that must be taken into account. However, Man United were also saddled with a similarly huge debt around about the same time and have won six league titles and the Champions League since then so I'm not sure how much that excuse can wash.

The trophy drought should end this year and Arsenal should have enough to secure 4th spot and a 17th successive year of Champions League football but is this enough to satisfy fans, particularly in a year that promised so much with the signing of a world superstar in Ozil and the runaway league lead over the winter? I think not.

Arsenal's capitulation this season began at Anfield on February 8th. They came to Liverpool as league leaders and found themselves lucky to be only 4-0 down after twenty minutes and lucky to escape with just a 5-1 defeat. This game was an easy tactical victory for Brendan Rodgers over Arsene Wenger. Arsenal always play with a high defensive line and Wenger continued this approach at Anfield. A massive mistake. All Rodgers had to do was instruct Coutinho to drop back and help win the ball in Liverpool's half, put Suarez on Sterling on the wings against Arsenal's advanced full backs and trust his attackers to punish Wenger for his refusal to adapt his tactics.

The defeats to Liverpool and Chelsea were amazingly similar

I found myself in disbelief when almost the exact same thing happened six weeks later at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal played against the division's other great counter attacking side with a similarly high line, clearly having learned nothing from their Anfield humiliation. This time they were 3-0 down in twenty minutes, 4-0 by half time and 6-0 by full time. It is genuinely baffling how a manager with Wenger's experience is so unwilling/unable to adapt his tactics based on the oppostion. It seems he'd rather lose playing his way than change his tactics from the system that everyone has figured out by now.

Last weekend, it was the turn of Roberto Martinez to make Wenger look like a fool. Wenger tends to play the same players in the same system every week. Against the weaker teams this will normally be enough. Against the big sides, as they've found out time and time again, you have to 'play the other team' and not just your own game. It sounds elementary but it's remarkable how often Arsenal seem to get caught out.

Everton don't have quick enough attacking players to destroy Arsenal on the counter the way Liverpool and Chelsea do. Martinez instead relied on the defensive negligence of Arsenal's 3/4 line (Podolski, Cazorla and Rosicky), put his two quickest attackers up against Arsenal's full backs and played Naismith as a false nine to drag the centre backs up and create more space in behind.

Martinez beat Wenger last week. He's seen as a possible replacement by many.

Arsene Wenger changed the face of English football. There can be no disputing that. He brought a new scientific and economic look at the game when he arrived in the mid-90s. But his failure to evolve with the times has seen the game over-take him. Young managers like Martinez and Rodgers have made him look like an old fool in the past few months while his old nemesis Jose Mourinho continues to get the better of him at every turn. Wenger attributes his side's failings since about 2007 to a 'lack of mental toughness'. That excuse held up when he had a young set of players but it doesn't anymore. Arsenal's youngest outfield player against Everton on Sunday was Olivier Giroud. He's 27. Wenger needs to stop relying on his trusty excuse and face up to the fact he's been out-thought time and time again by his opposing managers.

Times have changed and Wenger doesn't seem willing or able to move with them, certainly not way in the same way Ferguson did at Man United. His sides play lovely attacking football when they come up against the likes of Norwich or Sunderland. But their default gameplan, their plan A, is only effective against these type of sides. Against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and City, Arsenal don't change anything and get torn to shreds again and again.

You can't sack someone like Arsene Wenger, with all he's done for the club, but I can't see them winning another title, or even improving significantly with him at the helm. Looking to the future, the time may be right for both sides of this marriage to part ways, mutually and amicably.




Friday 4 April 2014

How Brendan Rodgers Has Revolutionized Liverpool


Hired in June 2012, armed with a 'five-year plan' that would take Liverpool back to the top of the English game, Brendan Rodgers has exceeded all expectations and brought them within sight of that elusive Premier League title within just two seasons.

Rodgers, who's just 41, worked as part of Jose Mourinho's coaching team during his first spell at Chelsea. He worked as youth team manager and reserve team manager before leaving to make the step into senior management in 2008. He had spells at both Watford and Reading in  the Championship but it was at Swansea where he really began to make a name for himself in football management. In his first season at the club he led the Swans to promotion to the Premier League via the playoffs and followed this up by consolidating their top flight status the following season with an impressive 11th place finish. Rodgers had probably taken this team as far as he could given their resources and the summer of 2012 would prove to be the right time to move on.

Swansea's playoff triumph at Wembley in 2011

Under Rodgers, Swansea played some of the best passing football in the division. In the 2011/12 season they averaged more passes per game than anyone but United and Arsenal, who finished 2nd and 3rd respectively, and had a higher success rate than everyone besides City, who finished the season as champions. Such was the growth of Rodgers reputation that at the end of the season he was offered the biggest job available in the country at that time, the chance to follow in the shoes of some of the best managers of all time and take charge of Liverpool.

Liverpool at this time were in a period of decline and had been for about three years since Rafa Benitez led them to a credible 2nd place finish in 08/09. Rodgers primary task was to stop the decline. His first season represented an improvement on any since Benitez left the club. They won more games, more points and finished one place higher than they had under Dalglish. Notably, they almost doubled their goal tally from the previous season, highlighting the new emphasis Rodgers had placed on attacking football.

There were some other notable statistics that emphasized the change in philosophy Brendan Rodgers was bringing to the club. He was making his mark on this team, inspired by Barcelona's famous tiki-taka brand of football of which he is an avid fan.

  • Liverpool enjoyed a higher average share of possession in 12/13 compared to 11/12, an increase of roughly 3%, not enormous.
  • Liverpool's pass completion rate increased from 80% under Dalglish to 85% under Rodgers in 12/13. It's stayed at roughly that level this season.
  • The average amount of passes played per game has increased under Rodgers, starting out at 390 under the old regime it has since jumped significantly to 475 per game. 
  • In tandem with this, the amount of long passes attempted per game has reduced from 67 per game under Dalglish down to around 50 under Rodgers, showing his preference for a shorter passing style over Dalglish's more direct approach.

One of the first things Rodgers did upon his arrival at Anfield was make it perfectly clear that Liverpool's record signing, £35m striker Andy Carroll would not be part of his plans for the club. Carroll was allowed to leave on loan for the season in August and permanently twelve months later. This was seen by a bold move in some quarters and Rodgers received a lot of criticism as it left him going into the 2012/13 with Luis Suarez as the club's only recognised striker. In hindsight, it was a smart move. Carroll is about as direct a player as they come and Rodgers style of play is anything but direct.

Henderson is one player Rodgers has got the best out of

This has in turn allowed Luis Suarez to thrive as the club's lead striker, unleashed, the Uruguayan duly looks set to not only secure the golden boot this year but also to break the Premier League records for goals in a season. Under Dalglish he was often being wasted, used in tandem with Carroll as part of an old fashioned  big-man/little-man, Niall Quinn/Kevin Phillips type duo, the quicker nimbler forward feeding off flick-ons from the taller man. Under Rodgers he's become an unplayable tenacious, ruthless, complete striker more like Didier Drogba than Kevin Phillips.

This season, the good work Rodgers did in his first season and the foundations he laid down are reaping massive rewards. Liverpool have been undoubtedly the most exciting team to watch in the division and now head the table with just seven games remaining. Rodgers has made minor tweaks to his strategy game by game. They still play with an adventurous high-line against most opponents which have exposed defensive frailities but going forward, particularly on the fast counter attack which wasn't used so much last season, they look irresistible and should break the 100 goal mark before the season is out. This year they've scored eight times from counter attacks, double the amount of any other team in the league.

Having experimented with a 3-5-2 formation among others earlier in the season, Rodgers now seems settled on one of two main formations with only one minor difference between them. His preferred formation is  a 4-3-3 but at times, such as the recent wins over Southampton and Man United, he has reverted to a 4-4-2 with a diamond structure in midfield.

The preferred 4-3-3 formation shown below consists of:
  • Two centre backs. These are more than mere defensive pieces, they have an art in recycling possession for the more attacking players and playing the ball out of defence when they win it, not just hoofing it long. Skrtel and Sakho average more passes per game than any member of the squad aside from Gerrard and Henderson.
  • Two wing backs: Rodgers has dispensed with out-and-out wingers, appointing the task of providing attacking width to his full-backs. This has left them exposed at times particularly on the right where Glen Johnson loves to get forward and can be negligent defensively. The absence of wingers gives them more bodies inside, closer to the goal and more chance to dominate that area. 
  • Anchor-man: Steven Gerrard, who's been a revelation in this new position for him. He chases down the opposition, wins the ball back and plays it off to a team-mate as they look to set-up an attack. He'd be a contender for Player of the Year if it wasn't already certain to go to his Uruguayan mate further up the pitch.
  • Box-to-box midfielders: Henderson and Allen recently although Coutinho has found himself there. These players need to be energetic, with good engines and levels of stamina. Their main role is to win the ball back by means of tireless pressing and tackling. Once Liverpool have the ball back, these two look to get forward to provide extra attacking options, particularly to the flanks.
  • Forwards: The front-line is pretty flexible and versatile. Lately Rodger's has used Suarez and Sterling as inside forwards, not wingers, and Sturridge as the main outlet up front. The system is fairly fluid however and can be altered depending on the opposition's defence. The pace of all three make Liverpool exceptionally dangerous on the counter attack.

Liverpool's 4-3-3 used of late

Alternatively, as he did against Man United, Rodgers could use Sterling or Coutinho in a more central role. Coutinho would be the better natural fit for this position but Sterling has come on in leaps and bounds technically over the past year, he's no longer just a pacy winger (Rodgers must take some credit for this, whatever way he is being coached is obviously proving effective) and has looked pretty solid when used in that role.

LIverpool's diamond formation

On the pitch, Rodgers has proved himself tactically. He's an excellent motivator, handles the media very well and get's the best out of players who weren't reaching their potential before working for him, Jordan Henderson being the prime example of a player who has improved drastically this season.

The way he handled the Luis Suarez affair last summer was admirable. Rodgers navigated a potentially disastrous situation of a superstar in open revolt and came out of it the other side with his reputation very much intact, perhaps even stronger. He refused to yield to Suarez demands to leave and instead of begging or pleading with him to stay he calmly told him 'You're staying. Oh and by the way, go apologize to your team-mates or you'll be training with the youth team'. Suarez had no option but to give in, relationships were repaired and the rest is (very recent) history.

The Suarez/Rodger relationship seems to be repaired

One area he still remains a little suspect in is the transfer market. Since his arrival, Rodgers has overseeen four transfer windows at Liverpool and spent roughly £100m, yet of the twelve players shown in the diagrams above, eight were already at the club before his arrival. Joe Allen followed him from Swansea, Sturridge and Coutinho arrived for a combined fee of £20m in January 2013, two deals that look like absolute bargains now and by far the best bit of business Liverpool have done under Rodgers. Simon Mignolet arrived in the summer to replace keeper Pepe Reina who left for Napoli on loan.

He's spent big on other players. Sakho cost £17m from PSG which looks a tad expensive for what they got. Other than that the likes of Iago Aspas, Luis Alberto and Tiago Illori have all arrived, not for huge fees individually but it all adds up, and not really contributed towards making the side better. Rodgers will need to spend his money more wisely this summer as they look to establish some real strength in depth.

Speaking of which, that really is the main issue for Liverpool going forward. Beefing up the squad. At the moment they've got a very good first XI but not a whole lot of muscle in reserve. Next year they return to the Champions League for the first time since 2009. This year, without the distraction of European football altogether, they have got away without having to rotate the squad too much and their depth has not been tested. This will change next year with a guaranteed six extra midweek games at least to navigate. There will be extra rotation remove the luxury being able to name virtually the same side every week and the continuity this provides.

All in all, Brendan Rodgers has brought about drastic changes to the style of play at Liverpool. The results have come a lot quicker than perhaps he expected and now club stands within touching distance of a first ever Premier League title.